Right folks, me and my
Casio FX-85 have been busy all afternoon and I am finally willing to put my
name to an election forecast.
My projection is:
Con: 279
Lab: 268
SNP: 48
Lib Dem: 28
DUP: 9
Sinn Fein: 5
UKIP: 3
Green: 1
Others: 9
This is my forecast for
the make up of the House of Commons as a whole however these figures include
the Speaker and the five Sinn Fein MP’s who will not take their seats. Assuming
that John Bercow is returned as speaker, which I consider likely, the adjusted
the figures will be as follows:
Con: 278
Lab: 268
SNP: 48
Lib Dem: 28
DUP: 9
UKIP: 3
Green: 1
Others: 9
This would mean that
the winner would require 323 to form a majority or 322 as in the event of a tie
on a commons vote the speaker will cast his vote in favour of the government.
In this projection
there will be no major upsets. Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander, the two most
senior Labour politicians Scotland under risk from the SNP will both hold their
seats, as will Charles Kennedy for the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg will retain his
seat. The most senior politicians to lose their seats will be Danny Alexander
in Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey and Esther McVey in Wirral West.
Alex Salmond will win in Gordon, albeit
narrowly, and Boris Johnson will triumph in in Uxbridge. Saddam Hussein look
alike John Thurso (Whose constituency coincidentally includes the town of
Thurso) is no better than evens to hold his Caithness,
Sutherland and Easter Ross seat. Caroline Lucas will represent Brighton Pavilion but the Greens will miss out on a second seat in Bristol West.
I think UKIP will have a
better night than many expect. They look like winning Clacton and Thurrock and
Farage will win in South Thanet. In Bradford West, although there is a dearth
of polling, the betting is strongly in favour of George Galloway retaining his
seat so I have chalked it up for Respect.
The other parties include Plaid Cymru, who will hold but not improve upon their tally of three seats, and various Northern Ireland parties.
